Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province in central China, will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or extreme uncertainty about which bracket will capture the day's maximum reading.

Chengdu's July climate is characterised by intense heat and high humidity, with historical data from Wunderground showing typical daily highs between 29°C and 33°C during this period. The city occasionally experiences extreme heat events exceeding 35°C, though such occurrences remain relatively infrequent. July 2022 saw a peak of 40.2°C recorded in the city during an exceptional heatwave, whilst more typical years produce maxima in the 32–34°C range. The airport station's readings tend to align with broader Sichuan Basin patterns, making regional climate patterns and any developing heat systems the primary drivers of settlement.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the days preceding 25 July, which typically provide reliable guidance on temperature extremes. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through early 2026 could influence summer heat intensity across central China. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 July, requiring traders to assess forecasts issued by 23–24 July to inform final positions. Wunderground's historical database for Chengdu Shuangliu will provide the definitive resolution source, accessible through the platform's standard interface.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.