Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, Chongqing will record its highest temperature for that date, measured at Jiangbei International Airport Station and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will resolve correctly.

Chongqing's August temperatures are consistently extreme. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows the city regularly exceeds 38°C during mid-August, with daily highs frequently reaching 39–40°C. The 2013–2023 decade saw August 11 highs ranging between 36°C and 39°C, establishing a narrow but predictable band. The city's position in the Sichuan Basin, combined with urban heat island effects, creates reliably hot conditions during this period. Comparable inland Chinese cities at similar latitudes show analogous patterns, suggesting the outcome will likely fall within established seasonal norms rather than represent an anomaly.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and international models, which typically provide reliable 10-day outlooks. Atmospheric pressure systems and monsoon activity in the preceding weeks will influence whether August 11 sits at the cooler or warmer end of the historical range. The resolution mechanism's reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures creates a technical dependency; traders should verify data availability and reporting consistency from Jiangbei station before committing capital.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.