Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s highest temperature on 3 August will be set by the reading at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, with the market settling on the Celsius band that contains that day’s peak. August is normally the city’s hottest month, and published climate guides put early-August highs around the mid-30s Celsius, with an August 3 historical high of 34.7°C in one commonly cited reference set.[1][8][15]

The 0% implied probability looks like a market pricing quirk rather than a genuine view that the day will be cool: in a city where August average highs sit near 33–34°C, a mid-30s print is routine, while extreme heat can push far above that in exceptional years.[1][3][8] The comparison point traders usually lean on is not national weather narratives but local station history, because the settlement source is a single airport observation rather than a citywide average; that makes the exact daily max at Jiangbei more important than general Chongqing climate data.[2][12]

The main catalyst to watch is the short-range forecast and any update to the airport station’s observed maximum through the day, especially if a hot spell or convective rain changes the ceiling temperature during the settlement window. Weather services continue to flag August as hot, humid and often rainy in Chongqing, so traders will be watching whether the day behaves like a standard high-30s summer session or whether cloud and showers cap the peak below the usual August range.[1][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.