Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the measurement of the peak daytime temperature at Chongqing’s Jiangbei International Airport on 2 July 2026, a date falling squarely within the city’s most scorching seasonal window. Chongqing, famously dubbed one of China’s “Four Furnaces,” routinely experiences extreme heat in July, with average highs around 33°C and recorded peaks reaching 43°C, often amplified by high humidity and the urban heat island effect[1][3][5].

Historical data frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability as highly counterintuitive. July and August are consistently the hottest months, with daytime averages near 28.7°C and frequent surges above 35°C, while the rainy season from June to August does not typically suppress peak temperatures to negligible levels[1][2]. Even the 10-day period with the highest average highs in late July still reaches 29.3°C, suggesting that a temperature so low as to invalidate the market is climatically improbable for this location and date[6].

Traders should monitor real-time weather bulletins from Wunderground, the official resolution source, alongside any sudden shifts in monsoon intensity or unexpected cloud cover that could temporarily dampen peak readings[2]. While no scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence atmospheric conditions, the market appears to lean on the reliability of Wunderground’s historical daily records rather than external political catalysts, as confirmed by the source’s dedicated weather archive[2]. Recent climate reports from Travel China Guide reinforce that temperatures may feel as high as 43°C due to humidity, further undermining the zero-probability stance[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.