Highest temperature in Dallas on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field was already running hot on 21 August, with Weather Underground showing 90°F before dawn and an early peak of 93°F in the Daily Observations table, while third-party hourly forecasts had pencilled in highs of about 104°F to 105°F for the day. That leaves the market’s 100% YES pricing anchored in an ordinary August heat pattern rather than an edge case, because Dallas typically spends late summer well into the mid-90s and often higher.

The historical read-through is straightforward: in Dallas, August heat regularly reaches the upper 90s or low 100s, so any question framed around the day’s highest reading at Love Field is usually decided by whether the afternoon convection stays suppressed or a shower trims the peak. Comparable summer setups tend to settle close to forecast highs when skies remain mostly sunny, but a late cloud build-up or thunderstorm can knock a few degrees off the final observation.

For traders, the key catalyst is not a campaign-style event but the day’s weather progression at the Love Field station: the settlement source is the Daily Observations table, not the headline Day High & Low summary, so the final hourly print matters most. The main dependency is whether the hottest reading lands in the 100°F-plus band suggested by the forecasts, with the next check being any afternoon thunderstorm risk that could cap the maximum before the observation window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Dallas on August 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.