Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field Station on 13 July 2026, with settlement occurring at midday on that date. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or uncertainty about the relevant temperature ranges available for wagering.

Dallas's July climate is characterised by consistent heat, with historical records showing average highs near 95°F and frequent days exceeding 100°F during mid-summer. The National Weather Service data for Dallas spanning recent decades indicates that temperatures in the 95–105°F range dominate July outcomes, with readings above 105°F occurring in roughly one-fifth of years. The 0% probability reading likely reflects the market's nascent stage rather than genuine confidence that no temperature will be recorded; traders may be awaiting clarity on the specific temperature brackets offered for settlement.

The key dependency for this market is the accuracy and availability of historical data from Wunderground's Dallas Love Field Station records on the settlement date. Weather forecasts become reliable only within seven to ten days of the target date, so meaningful trading activity will likely concentrate in early July 2026. Traders should monitor whether the market's temperature ranges align with climatological norms—misaligned brackets could explain the current zero probability and may shift once the market structure becomes clearer to participants.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.