Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the daily high temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, a metric that will determine the resolution of a weather-based prediction market. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, despite the day being forecast as sunny with highs near 97°F[1].

Historically, 28 June in Dallas has seen extreme heat, with the all-time record reaching 110°F in 1980, a year that also produced 113°F readings across the region in late June[2][8]. However, recent June 2026 forecasts indicate daily highs between 96°F and 100°F, with overnight lows of 77°F to 83°F, which is significantly cooler than the 1980 peak but consistent with the hot season average above 89°F[4][6]. This disparity between the historical record and current forecasts frames the low probability, as the market leans on the expectation that temperatures will not breach the upper threshold of the wagered range.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for any sudden deviations from the forecasted 97°F high[1]. While no scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence weather, the market is leaning on the immediate meteorological data rather than external catalysts, as weather patterns in Dallas are driven by atmospheric conditions rather than human events. The absence of significant precipitation chances in the coming days, with only 20% probability for some rain, further supports the stability of the current forecast[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.