Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s high temperature is the key figure here: the market settles on the day’s peak at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, not the citywide average. With the current crowd view at 0% YES, traders are effectively treating an unusually hot reading as highly unlikely, despite August being one of Guangzhou’s hottest and most humid months, with typical highs around 33–34°C and frequent rain in many long-range guides.[1][4][12]

That framing is important because the historical baseline points to a narrow band around the low 30s Celsius, while isolated hotter days do occur in August. Comparable August forecasts for Guangzhou have repeatedly shown highs in the 89–93°F range, and some sources still place 4 August near 33°C with rain, which would leave room for a peak well above average if sunshine breaks through for part of the day.[1][2][14] The market’s 0% reading therefore looks less like a call on cool weather than a belief that the exact airport observation will stay within the usual range.

The catalyst to watch is the intraday weather pattern over Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, especially whether showers and thunderstorm bands suppress daytime heating or whether brief clearing allows a hotter maximum before noon UTC. Current public forecasts lean on rain and humid conditions for 4 August, with BBC Weather showing light showers and thundery spells at the airport station and other forecast services also pointing to rain-heavy conditions.[8][16] For traders, the most relevant dependency is the sequence of cloud cover, rainfall and wind at the airport station itself, since that is the source the market uses for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.