Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou on 1 July 2026 will see its peak temperature recorded at the Baiyun International Airport Station, a metric that determines the outcome of this weather prediction market. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range, despite historical data indicating July is consistently one of the hottest months in the region.

Historical records frame this low probability with caution: on 1 July 2004, Guangzhou hit its all-time high of 39.1°C at the same station, while typical July highs average around 33°C, rarely dipping below 29°C or exceeding 36°C [1][3][5]. Recent national trends reinforce this volatility, as China experienced its hottest July on record in 2024, with average temperatures surpassing previous decades since 1961 [2][6]. These comparable cases suggest that a 0% probability may understate the risk of an extreme heat spike, particularly given the city’s warming trajectory.

Traders should monitor upcoming climate declarations and regional weather forecasts issued by China’s National Meteorological Centre, which often precede scheduled heatwave advisories in early July [7]. A key catalyst is the potential for an official high-temperature alert, which could trigger rapid polling shifts if Wunderground data confirms temperatures approaching 36°C or higher [8]. Recent campaign-finance disclosures from provincial environmental agencies may also signal increased investment in cooling infrastructure, indirectly influencing public perception of heat risks. The market appears to lean on the absence of an imminent extreme heat declaration, but this could change swiftly if new data emerges.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.