Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s temperature on 31 July will be judged against the highest reading at Baiyun International Airport, with the market resolving off Wunderground’s daily history page for that station. The crowd’s 0% YES implies traders currently see no realistic route to a reading in the market’s target range, even though late-July Guangzhou is normally among the city’s hottest periods. Historical July climate data put Guangzhou’s typical daytime high around 32-33°C, with record July highs in the high 30s and an all-time city record of 39.1°C, so the real issue is not whether it can be hot, but whether the airport station posts an extreme enough peak on the day.[2][16]

That makes the market easiest to read through comparable hot-season cases rather than day-to-day weather noise. Guangzhou’s July averages are consistently oppressive, but the spread between ordinary summer heat and record territory is wide: one weather-history source gives a July mean high of about 32.7°C and a July record high of 38.4°C, while another shows a long-run July average high near 32.9°C.[2][3] In practical terms, a 0% implied probability fits a view that the market needs a rare, well-above-normal spike to clear the relevant range, not just a standard humid summer afternoon.

For traders, the key catalyst is the short-range forecast for south Guangdong and whether any heat advisory, monsoon cloud, or rain band suppresses the daytime maximum at Baiyun Airport. On the morning of 31 July, live conditions in Guangzhou were already warm and unsettled, with timeanddate showing 81°F, sprinkles and mostly cloudy skies late on the day, which would tend to cap the high if that pattern persists.[1] The market therefore leans chiefly on the daily forecast cycle and the actual midday-to-afternoon temperature peak, rather than on any scheduled political or financial event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.