Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 19 August 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the absolute daily maximum temperature published in the Observatory's Daily Extract climate data, with settlement occurring after official finalisation of that day's readings.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical records showing daily maxima typically ranging between 31°C and 34°C during mid-August. The Observatory's 30-year climate normal for this date sits around 32.1°C, though individual daily records have occasionally reached 35°C or higher during particularly intense heat events. Traders should examine the specific temperature bands offered in this market against the long-term distribution of August 19th readings, which show clustering in the 32–34°C range accounting for the majority of outcomes. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular outcome band or insufficient market participation to establish meaningful pricing.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the broader atmospheric pattern expected across East Asia in August 2026. Tropical cyclone activity, monsoon intensity, and subtropical high-pressure systems will determine whether conditions favour above-normal or below-normal temperatures on the specified date. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological agencies in the months preceding August, though such forecasts typically carry limited precision beyond 10–14 days. Real-time weather models become actionable only in the final week before settlement.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.