Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the measurement of Hong Kong’s peak daily air temperature on 10 July 2026, recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in its official climatological extract. With the crowd-implied probability of a “YES” resolution at 0%, the market currently assumes the temperature will fall outside the defined range, likely because historical data and forecasts suggest values will remain within typical July bounds.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with the highest monthly maximum temperature since 1885 reaching 35.7°C [1]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast projects daily highs between 85°F and 95°F (29.4°C–35.0°C), with an average high of 89°F (31.7°C) [2]. Recent records confirm July 2026 broke 11 heat-related benchmarks, including becoming the hottest month ever in Hong Kong [4]. These comparable cases indicate that while temperatures are extreme, they rarely exceed the upper thresholds implied by the market’s “YES” condition, supporting the current 0% probability.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalised “Daily Extract” for 10 July 2026, which will publish the absolute daily maximum temperature once data is verified [7]. No scheduled political debates or campaign-finance disclosures directly influence this weather event, but the market leans on the catalyst of official climatological confirmation rather than external socio-political factors. The Hong Kong Observatory’s monthly summary for 2026 will be the definitive source, and its release timing determines when the market can resolve [10]. Until that data is finalized, no resolution is possible, and the 0% probability reflects the expectation that temperatures will stay within the norm.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.