Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature reached on 1 June 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract dataset, with settlement occurring once that data is finalised and made publicly available.

June represents the onset of Hong Kong's pre-monsoon season, when temperatures typically range between 28°C and 32°C, though daily maxima can occasionally exceed 33°C during heat waves. Historical records from the Hong Kong Observatory show considerable year-to-year variation; the highest June temperatures on record have reached the mid-to-high 30s Celsius, whilst cooler June days have remained below 28°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or have not yet engaged substantively with this particular market. Comparable June temperature outcomes across recent years provide the primary basis for assessing likely ranges, as seasonal patterns remain relatively consistent despite broader climate trends.

Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts released in late May 2026, particularly those from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional weather services, which typically provide reliable ten-day outlooks. The timing of the southwest monsoon onset—usually occurring between May and June—will significantly influence whether 1 June experiences typical seasonal warmth or cooler conditions associated with increased cloud cover and precipitation. Any unusual atmospheric patterns, such as tropical cyclone activity or sustained high-pressure systems over southern China, would represent material catalysts affecting the day's maximum temperature.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 1? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.