Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 11 June 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes daily temperature data through its Climate Information Services portal, with the "Absolute Daily Max" figure serving as the settlement source once finalised in the Daily Extract.

Hong Kong's June temperatures show consistent patterns across decades of records. The territory experiences early monsoon conditions by mid-June, with daily highs typically ranging between 29°C and 33°C. Historical data from the Observatory indicates that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35°C—occur occasionally but remain relatively rare in early June, with such occurrences concentrated in July and August when the summer heat peaks. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold that historical June patterns make unlikely, though without visibility on which range the market has defined as "YES", the baseline expectation remains within the normal seasonal band.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any anomalous weather patterns emerging in late May 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through spring could influence June temperatures, though such shifts typically manifest more dramatically later in summer. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 11 June, requiring the Observatory to have published finalised daily data before resolution occurs. Any unusual atmospheric systems or heat waves tracking towards southern China in early June would represent the primary catalyst for movement away from the current probability assessment.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.