Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's highest temperature on 12 June 2026 will be measured and recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory, with settlement determined by the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract once the date has passed. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet engaged with pricing this specific day's weather outcome.

June in Hong Kong typically falls within the pre-monsoon period, with mean daily maxima around 31–32°C and occasional peaks exceeding 34°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme temperatures above 36°C occur in roughly 5–10% of June days across the past two decades, whilst readings below 28°C are rare. The 0% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty in pricing weather events more than a year in advance, when seasonal patterns provide the only reliable baseline for forecasting.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather models released by the Hong Kong Observatory and international meteorological services as June 2026 approaches. The El Niño Southern Oscillation phase and broader Pacific climate patterns will influence whether the pre-monsoon period brings typical or anomalous temperatures. Real-time updates from the Observatory's monthly climate summaries and any declared heat-wave warnings in the weeks preceding 12 June will serve as practical indicators of atmospheric conditions. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's published daily maximum temperature figure, which becomes available only after the date has concluded.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.