Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 13 June 2026 will determine the highest temperature recorded by the Observatory on that date, measured to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory publishing its daily extract data, which typically becomes available within days of observation.

Historical records show Hong Kong experiences early monsoon conditions by mid-June, with temperatures typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C during this period. The Observatory's 30-year climate normals indicate an average daily maximum of approximately 31°C for mid-June, though individual days frequently exceed 33°C during heat waves or when the southwest monsoon brings warm, humid air masses from the South China Sea. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting baseline climate data or treating this as a placeholder market pending seasonal pattern confirmation closer to the resolution date.

Traders should monitor the Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any declared heat-wave warnings in the weeks preceding 13 June 2026. The Hong Kong Meteorological Society and regional weather services typically issue extended outlooks by late May, which could shift probability distributions if anomalous conditions are anticipated. Atmospheric pressure patterns, tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific, and the strength of the southwest monsoon will be the primary drivers of temperature outcomes. The Observatory's publicly available climate statistics, updated annually, provide the baseline against which June 2026 conditions will be assessed.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.