Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 4 June 2026, with settlement depending on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in their Daily Extract dataset. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the eventual reading.

Hong Kong's June temperatures typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with historical data from the Observatory showing considerable year-to-year variation. The 4 June date falls within the pre-monsoon season, when the territory experiences warm, humid conditions but before the peak summer heat of July and August. Comparable June days over the past decade have produced highs ranging from 29°C to 33°C, providing a reasonable baseline for expected outcomes. The absence of any probability mass suggests traders have not yet engaged with the specific temperature brackets offered, rather than indicating genuine consensus that no reading will occur.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns and any unusual atmospheric conditions developing in late May 2026. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts approximately two weeks in advance, which will provide initial guidance on expected conditions for early June. Settlement hinges entirely on the Observatory's published data; no alternative sources or adjustments apply. The market cannot resolve until the Daily Extract for 4 June is finalised and made publicly available through the Observatory's climate information system.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

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Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.