Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s reading on 3 August will be set by the **highest temperature recorded at William P. Hobby Airport**, so the market is effectively about whether the day gets hot enough to land in the upper August range. Seasonal data point to a hot baseline: Houston’s August average high is about **83°F** on AccuWeather, while long-range guides put typical daytime maxima in the **mid-80s to upper-80s°F**, with humidity often making heat feel more oppressive than the thermometer alone suggests.[2][7][15]

The current **0% YES** implies the crowd is treating an extreme outcome as very unlikely, which is consistent with a market that hinges on a single airport observation rather than citywide conditions. Comparable Houston August patterns usually sit close to normal summer warmth rather than producing a standout spike, so traders generally read these contracts through the lens of whether the day threatens the season’s upper tail or simply prints another routine hot afternoon.[2][7][11]

The main catalyst is the **official daily high from Hobby Airport**, and the key thing to watch is the temperature path during local afternoon hours, when Houston typically reaches its peak. Weather forecasts for 3 August showed a hot day around **88°F** in central Houston with sunny conditions on one feed, while another forecast suggested a high nearer **98°F** and patchy rain possible, underlining that small forecast shifts can matter for a single-station settlement.[3][4] That makes updated local forecasts, any convective cloud cover, and late-day sea-breeze effects the practical drivers for this market rather than broader regional averages.[3][4][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Houston on August 3? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.