Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s highest temperature on 10 July 2026 will be measured at William P. Hobby Airport, with the market currently pricing any outcome above the lowest range at zero probability. This 0% YES implies the crowd expects the peak heat to fall well below triple digits, despite July being Houston’s hottest month. Historical records show 10 July 2022 reached 105°F at the same station, matching the city’s all-time July high from 26 July 1954 [1]. Since 1980, Houston averages only three to four days annually hitting 100°F or more, with recent weeks seeing highs near 98°F and heat indexes exceeding 106°F [1][3]. The current probability aligns with typical mid-July variability rather than record-breaking extremes.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for KHOU as the settlement window closes, watching for any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures. No political debates, campaign disclosures, or conventions influence this weather event; the sole catalyst is the atmospheric pattern over the Gulf Coast. Recent forecasts indicate sustained mid-to-upper 90s with 100°F possible inland, but no indication of a heatwave pushing past 104°F [3]. The market leans on the absence of extreme forecast signals rather than any scheduled declaration. With settlement ending 12:00 UTC on 10 July 2026, real-time data from Weather Underground will determine resolution, and any deviation from the 98–100°F range would require an unforecasted surge in heat index values [2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Houston on July 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.