Highest temperature in London on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 11 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, meaning the resolution depends on actual meteorological data from a specific monitoring station rather than broader London readings or forecasts.

August temperatures at London City Airport typically range between 20–24°C for daily highs, with occasional peaks above 25°C during heat waves. Historical records show that temperatures exceeding 28°C on any single August day in London remain relatively uncommon, occurring roughly once every five to ten years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall within a lower range bracket than the market's highest available option, or that uncertainty about the exact resolution threshold is driving caution.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the accuracy and availability of Weather Underground's Daily Observations data from London City Airport on the settlement date. Traders should monitor whether the station remains operational and whether any data gaps or corrections occur post-settlement. Long-range weather forecasting for August 2026 remains unreliable at present; seasonal outlooks typically become meaningful only four to six weeks before the target date. The market's current pricing reflects this fundamental forecasting constraint rather than any emerging climate signal or scheduled weather event.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in London on August 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.