Highest temperature in London on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

London’s late-July heat profile gives this market a firm seasonal anchor, but it is the day’s peak reading at London City Airport that will matter for settlement. July is typically warm in the capital, yet the main historical reference points are much higher than the low-30s values that often dominate an average summer day: Heathrow hit 37.8°C on 31 July 2020, while London’s all-time city-area record reached 40.2°C at St James’s Park and Heathrow during the July 2022 heatwave.[3][9][15] By comparison, recent July weather in central London has often topped out in the low to mid-30s Celsius rather than anything close to those extremes.[1][11]

The current 0% YES price implies the crowd is not leaning on a major hot-day upside case, and that is consistent with a market settled on a single-day airport observation rather than a broad London average. Traders should watch the Met Office and major UK weather coverage for any late-summer heatwave signals, but the key catalyst is whether forecasts shift towards a clear south-east England hot spell on the morning of 31 July, as happened in past high-temperature episodes when London readings accelerated rapidly through the afternoon.[2][3][17] If guidance remains centred on ordinary late-July highs, the market is more likely to stay priced away from the upper temperature bands that would require a notably hot afternoon at London City Airport.[1][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in London on July 31? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.