Highest temperature in London on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market hinges on whether London City Airport will record a June 24 high temperature within the range implied by the current 77% YES probability, with settlement dependent on the first Wunderground data point published for that date. Historical context shows London’s absolute peak is 40.2°C, recorded at Heathrow and St James’s Park on 19 July 2022, while late June typically sees highs around 25–28°C at City Airport, as confirmed by recent BBC Weather observations showing 28°C on 22 June [2][3]. The 77% probability suggests traders are betting on a near-record June day, possibly leaning toward the 38–39°C range flagged by Met Office forecasts for late June heatwaves [8][9].

Traders should monitor upcoming Met Office declarations on maximum temperature thresholds, scheduled climate briefings ahead of the summer solstice, and any recent campaign-finance disclosures from environmental groups that might signal public pressure for heat-related policy shifts. The market is most likely leaning on the Met Office’s headline maximum temperature forecast of 39°C for Thursday, which could catalyse a surge in YES volume if conditions align [9]. No political debates or election announcements are directly tied to this weather event, but climate-related polling from aggregators like YouGov may shift if extreme heat becomes a voter concern, as seen in previous summer heatwaves [8]. Watch for real-time Wunderground updates once the settlement window opens at 12:00 UTC on 24 June 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in London on June 24? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.