Highest temperature in Madrid on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's weather on 21 July 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records from the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport meteorological station, with the highest daily temperature determining the settlement outcome. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or an expectation that typical July conditions will fall within a baseline range that traders have not yet defined through active positioning.

July temperatures in Madrid have historically clustered in the 32–38°C range, with extreme heat events pushing above 40°C occurring roughly once per decade. The Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) recorded 40.5°C at Madrid-Barajas on 13 July 2023 during an exceptional heatwave, and 42.6°C on 16 July 2022. These precedents establish that whilst temperatures above 38°C are unusual, they remain within the realm of plausible outcomes for mid-summer Madrid. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects traders awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or awaiting market liquidity before committing positions.

Traders should monitor AEMET's extended forecasts from late June 2026 onwards, as these will provide the first substantive signals about atmospheric conditions likely to prevail during the settlement window. European heat-dome patterns and Atlantic pressure systems typically become predictable at the two-to-three-week horizon. Any declaration of heatwave conditions by Spanish authorities or notable divergence from the 30-year climatological average would likely trigger repositioning across temperature brackets.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Madrid on July 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.