Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market assesses the likelihood that Manila’s highest temperature on 1 July 2026 will exceed 34°C at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, with current odds implying a 0% chance of this outcome. Historical data shows July is part of Manila’s wet season, marked by heavy rainfall and high humidity, which typically suppresses peak temperatures. Long-term averages place daytime highs around 31°C, rarely exceeding 33°C, while the hottest months in Manila are March and April, not July[3][4].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from PAGASA and Wunderground, as tropical storm activity—averaging 1.6 days in July—can further lower temperatures[3]. No political catalysts, such as campaign-finance disclosures or scheduled debates, influence this weather-based market; the primary driver is meteorological dependency. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 83°F and 94°F (28°C–34°C), with the average high at 89°F (32°C), reinforcing the low probability of exceeding 34°C[2][8]. The market leans on temperature volatility tied to monsoon patterns rather than human events.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Manila on July 1? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.