Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila is entering its wet season peak on 11 July 2026, when heavy rainfall and high humidity typically suppress daytime highs. Historical data shows July daytime maximums in Manila average 31°C, with frequent showers occurring across 21 days of the month, making extreme heat unlikely during this period[2][3]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for any high-temperature bracket reflects this seasonal reality: July is not Manila’s hottest month, with March and April consistently recording higher averages around 32°C–34°C during the dry season[2].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, the designated resolution source, as tropical storm passages can further lower temperatures[2]. On average, 1.6 days in July experience tropical storm activity, which would decisively push temperatures below extreme thresholds[3]. With today’s forecast showing a high of 29.6°C (82°F) and 90% precipitation probability, the market is correctly leaning on the wet-season dependency rather than any heatwave catalyst[9]. No political declarations, campaign disclosures, or scheduled debates influence this weather outcome; the sole driver remains atmospheric conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Manila on July 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.