Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 14 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders view this as an event with genuine uncertainty rather than a foregone conclusion.

New York City's August temperatures have historically ranged between 75°F and 90°F, with extreme heat days occasionally pushing into the low 90s. The National Weather Service records show that temperatures exceeding 95°F occur roughly once every five to ten years during August in the metropolitan area. August 2023 saw a peak of 89°F at LaGuardia, whilst August 2022 reached 91°F. These precedents establish the baseline against which traders should calibrate expectations for any given August date.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's resolution will be seasonal weather patterns developing through summer 2026. Atlantic hurricane activity, jet stream positioning, and high-pressure system placement over the northeastern United States during mid-August will determine whether conditions favour typical summer temperatures or anomalous heat. Long-range forecasting models become increasingly unreliable beyond two weeks, meaning traders currently lack actionable meteorological data. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 14 August 2026, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution. Traders should monitor early August 2026 weather patterns and any emerging climate anomalies as the date approaches.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on August 14? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.