Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the highest temperature logged at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on 2 August, with settlement tied to the Wunderground daily history entry for that station. The market is currently pricing a very low chance of a hotter outcome, and that fits a summer setup where the day has already played out and the realised high is known from the official history page rather than a forecast model.[3][7]

For context, late-summer New York highs often cluster in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, so outcomes around the low 80s tend to be the default framing rather than the exception. That is also consistent with the market’s current leaning: a 0% yes price implies traders see little residual scope for an outsized heat spike, especially compared with the early-July heat wave when LaGuardia reached 104°F and Central Park touched 100°F.[1][17]

The main catalyst to watch is not a polling move or campaign calendar event, but the recorded airport observation itself: once the Wunderground history page updates, the settlement outcome should be straightforward.[3] For traders comparing analogue days, the key dependency is whether LaGuardia finished closer to a routine August high or something closer to the rare extreme seen in the July heat wave covered by the New York Times and Bloomberg; current public forecast-style listings for 2 August sit around the low 80s, reinforcing the market’s heavy bias towards a modest reading.[2][6][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on August 2? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.