Highest temperature in NYC on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s reading for 9 August has already cleared the low 90s in published forecast and historical-weather trackers, with one live summary showing 88.0°F at 1:51 pm UTC and a 6-hour high of 89.1°F, while Polymarket’s own contract page was concentrating heavily on the 90–91°F band rather than anything higher.[1][2] For a market settled off Wunderground’s **Daily Observations** table, that matters more than the broader New York City headline: the question is not the citywide feel, but the single station maximum recorded at KLGA during the day.[2][7]

The cleanest historical guide is that August highs at LaGuardia often cluster in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the National Weather Service and monthly climate pages showing ordinary summer heat rather than extreme outliers.[3][11] Comparable cases in the live market data also point to a centred outcome: the crowd has been treating 90–91°F as the base case, which is consistent with AccuWeather’s listed 9 August high of 90°F for New York and with weather-monitor pages placing the day close to the low 90s.[2][4][6] On that framing, a 0% “yes” price for the market’s current band would imply an outlier expectation, not the median weather path.

The catalyst to watch is the intraday KLGA observation sequence rather than any political calendar analogue: the decisive move comes from whether the airport briefly spikes above adjacent forecast ranges before the UTC settlement cut-off. Traders should watch updates from the National Weather Service’s New York forecast discussion and any late-afternoon adjustments in local reporting, with a recent Weather Service briefing and short-range forecast both pointing to the day’s temperature profile being set by the afternoon evolution rather than the morning start.[9][12][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on August 9? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.