Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above 91°F. This near-total dismissal of higher heat contrasts sharply with historical July norms in New York City, where daytime highs frequently exceed 90°F. For instance, records from 1966 show LaGuardia reaching 107°F on 3 July, and recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs ranging from 81°F to 99°F, with averages well above the 91°F threshold[8][9]. The current 0% probability suggests traders are leaning on a specific catalyst: the expectation of isolated thunderstorms and large hail mentioned in early morning updates, which typically suppress peak temperatures into the 80s[5].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological report for LaGuardia, which will officially verify the settlement temperature, alongside any sudden shifts in storm intensity that could further cool the air[6]. The market is heavily influenced by the forecast of stray storms in the late afternoon and strong wind gusts, which act as the primary driver for the low temperature outlook[5]. While the crowd-implied probability remains at zero for higher ranges, the historical data and current forecast range suggest a significant divergence, making the 92–93°F range the frontrunner with 90% market confidence[1]. Watch for any declarations from meteorological agencies regarding heat advisories or changes in storm patterns that could alter the settlement before the window closes on 1 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 1? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.