Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring a severe heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport recording its highest-ever midnight temperature of 94°F earlier this week, pushing daily highs well above the seasonal norm[2][4]. This extreme event has driven the crowd-implied probability for the market to 0% YES, suggesting traders believe the specific temperature range in question is virtually impossible to hit despite the current scorching conditions[3].

Historically, July highs at LaGuardia average around 84°F, rarely exceeding 93°F, though the current heatwave has already shattered these typical ceilings with readings reaching 100°F and higher[1][2]. The 0% probability likely reflects a mismatch between the specific range offered and the actual intensity of the current surge, as comparable records show temperatures can spike significantly above the 85°F daily average during such persistent events[1].

Traders should monitor the continuation of this heatwave through the settlement window, watching for any official declarations from the National Weather Service regarding record-breaking daily highs[10]. While the current momentum favours extreme heat, the market’s lean on the 0% probability suggests the specific threshold remains unattainable unless the heatwave intensifies further beyond the 102°F peak already observed[4]. Recent climate disclosures indicate this pattern aligns with broader East Coast heat trends, making the next few days critical for settlement[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on July 12? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.