Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market on New York City’s peak heat for 15 July 2026 has already resolved, with LaGuardia Airport recording a high of 86–87°F, locking in a 100% probability for that range and rendering the 0% YES crowd-implied figure obsolete. This outcome aligns with typical mid-July maxima for the airport, where temperatures frequently sit between 84°F and 88°F, though extreme heatwaves can push readings above 90°F. Historical records show that while 86–87°F is common, the city has experienced days exceeding 95°F, such as in July 2011 and August 2020, meaning the current resolution sits within the expected band rather than at an outlier.

Traders should note that this market is no longer active, so no future catalysts—such as scheduled weather forecasts, National Weather Service alerts, or climate declarations—will influence its outcome. The resolution source, Wunderground’s daily history for KLGA, confirmed the final temperature, and Polymarket has officially closed trading. In live weather markets, key dependencies usually include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s hourly updates and local emergency declarations during heat events, but none apply here given the resolved status. For future July 15 heat markets, watch for early-week forecast models from Weather.gov and any National Weather Service heat advisories issued for the Northeast, which often precede temperature spikes.

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Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 15? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.