Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 July 2026 will determine which temperature range resolves this market. Resolution depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date and station, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC on the day itself.

New York City's July temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 95°F—occur in roughly one in five July days during particularly hot summers. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either confidence that temperatures will fall within lower ranges or uncertainty about which specific bracket will contain the day's high. Comparable July days at LaGuardia over the past decade provide the most reliable baseline for assessing likelihood across temperature bands.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasting from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as summer 2026 approaches, particularly any El Niño or La Niña patterns that could influence Atlantic coastal temperatures. The Atlantic hurricane season, which peaks in August and September, occasionally generates heat and humidity spikes in early-to-mid July. Long-range climate models typically become more reliable within two to three weeks of the target date, allowing traders to refine probability estimates as July 19 draws nearer. Real-time forecast updates from the National Weather Service will provide the most actionable information in the final week before settlement.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on July 19? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.