Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 21 July 2026 will determine which temperature band resolves this market. Settlement relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC on that date. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the day's peak.

New York City's July climate presents a fairly predictable range. Historical data from LaGuardia shows July daily highs typically fall between 82°F and 88°F, with extreme heat days occasionally pushing toward 95°F. The 30-year average high for mid-July sits around 84°F. Anomalously cool days (below 75°F) or exceptionally hot days (above 95°F) occur but remain statistical outliers. The current crowd probability of zero across all brackets suggests traders have not yet engaged substantively with this market, leaving it without meaningful price discovery.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts as July 2026 approaches. The National Weather Service typically issues extended outlooks 8–14 days in advance, with greater confidence emerging 3–5 days before the settlement date. Any significant heat dome or unusual atmospheric pattern affecting the northeastern United States would shift expectations materially. Historical precedent shows that summer heat waves in the region can elevate daily highs 10–15°F above seasonal norms, though such events remain relatively infrequent. Early engagement in this market will likely depend on whether traders perceive value in specific temperature brackets relative to climatological baselines.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on July 21? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.