Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the maximum temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 July 2026, and the market is currently leaning towards a relatively modest summer high rather than an extreme heat spike. The crowd’s 0% yes reading on the binary framing is misleading here, because the contract actually resolves across temperature bands; the market data shows **84–85°F** as the leading bucket at **41%**, with **82–83°F** next at **36%**.[1]

That pricing sits close to New York’s usual July climate rather than a rare heatwave. Long-run July averages for New York City are around **29°C** (about **84°F**) for daytime highs, so a mid-80s outcome is broadly in line with seasonal norms rather than an outlier.[3] By contrast, the recent discussion around a New York heat wave has focused on much hotter conditions, with forecasts cited at **104–112°F** for peak periods across the region; if such a ridge had materialised over the city on 26 July, the market would likely be pricing far higher buckets than it is now.[4]

The main catalyst for traders is whether the temperature profile on the day is being driven by a routine summer ridge or a stronger heat-dome setup, with the latter usually showing up in short-range forecasts before settlement. Hourly weather guidance for the date points to a warm but not exceptional day, which is consistent with the present concentration in the low-to-mid 80s rather than the top end of the distribution.[2] For this contract, the key dependency is the official LaGuardia reading on Wunderground, so late forecast revisions and the actual afternoon peak will matter more than the morning minimum.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 26? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.