Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 27 July 2026 will determine which temperature range resolves this market. Resolution depends on historical weather data from Wunderground, with the settlement window closing at midday UTC on that date. New York City's summer temperatures typically peak in late July, with average highs around 27–29°C (81–84°F), though heat waves can push readings substantially higher.

LaGuardia's historical July records show considerable year-to-year variation. The station has recorded temperatures exceeding 32°C (90°F) on multiple occasions during late July, with extreme heat events occasionally reaching 35°C (95°F) or beyond. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are currently pricing in either very high temperature thresholds or uncertainty about which specific range the market offers. Comparable July weather patterns from recent decades indicate that temperatures in the 28–32°C band occur regularly, whilst readings above 35°C remain less frequent but plausible during established heat domes.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts as July 2026 approaches, particularly from the National Weather Service and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Atlantic hurricane activity and jet-stream positioning in late July typically influence northeastern United States temperatures; a ridge of high pressure would favour hotter conditions, whilst tropical moisture or frontal systems could moderate readings. Historical precedent suggests late-July heat in the New York area correlates with broader North American weather patterns established weeks in advance, making seasonal forecasts from June onwards relevant to positioning.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on July 27? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.