Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 11 June 2026 will determine which temperature range resolves this market, with settlement based on historical weather data from Weather Underground. New York City's early June climate typically produces daytime highs between 75–85°F, though heat waves occasionally push readings into the low 90s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific range options available or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a substantive weather forecast.

Historical June temperature patterns at LaGuardia show considerable year-to-year variation. The airport has recorded June highs ranging from the upper 60s during cooler years to 94°F during exceptional heat events. The 30-year average high for mid-June sits around 79°F, providing a baseline against which outlier scenarios should be assessed. Recent decades show no consistent trend toward hotter or cooler early-June conditions at this specific location, though broader atmospheric patterns influence seasonal outcomes.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts beginning in late May 2026, as the 10-day outlook window will provide the first reliable indication of whether high-pressure systems or Atlantic moisture patterns will dominate the Northeast during this period. The Atlantic hurricane season's early activity and sea-surface temperatures in May will influence June's weather trajectory. Real-time forecast updates from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction typically show greatest accuracy within 5–7 days of the target date, making early June the critical observation window for refining probability estimates.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.