Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Market context

The real-world event in question is the recorded high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, which settled at 72°F, a figure notably below the historical average of 83.2°F for that date. This outcome aligns with comparable cases where early June in New York City frequently experiences cooler-than-expected highs due to maritime influences, as seen in 2012 when the record high was 83°F but typical daily highs often hover near 75°F. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for higher ranges reflects this historical pattern, where temperatures rarely breach 76°F in the first half of June, making the 72°F reading consistent with established climatic norms rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from AccuWeather, which projects daily highs for late June ranging from 75°F to 88°F, suggesting a potential shift toward warmer conditions as the month progresses. The market is leaning on the catalyst of seasonal temperature escalation, with the National Weather Service noting that record highs for late June can reach 98°F, indicating that traders must watch for declarations of heat advisories or scheduled climate conventions that could signal a break from the current cool trend. Recent campaign-finance disclosures from weather-related lobbying groups may also influence public perception of climate risks, though the primary driver remains the natural progression of seasonal temperatures as documented by Wunderground.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on June 22? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.