Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The underlying event is a forecast for extreme heat in New York City on 26 June 2026, specifically at LaGuardia Airport, where temperatures are expected to surge well above the seasonal average. Current crowd-implied probability for the highest temperature falling in the 81° to 82° range sits at 0% YES, despite market odds suggesting a 37% chance for that specific bracket, indicating a sharp divergence between trader sentiment and the prevailing consensus on the outcome[1].

Historically, late June in New York sees average highs around 78.8°F, with record peaks reaching 101°F, meaning the 81° to 82° range is plausible but not exceptional for a hot day[3][7]. Recent weather patterns in the Northeast, such as the heatwave hitting on 5 June 2026, saw New York City hit 87°F with summery conditions persisting through the weekend, suggesting that temperatures in the low 90s are possible if warm air from the south continues to push north[2]. This historical context frames the 0% probability as potentially overly cautious, given the intensity of recent surges.

Traders should monitor upcoming announcements regarding cold front movements and thunderstorm forecasts, which could abruptly cool the region before the settlement window ends. A cold front is anticipated to bring scattered thunderstorms and cooler air from Baltimore to New England on Saturday night, potentially disrupting the heat surge if it arrives earlier than expected[2]. The market is leaning heavily on the timing of this front, as cited by The New York Times, which notes that peak temperatures for the weekend are expected on Saturday, with highs up to 15 degrees above seasonal average[2]. Watch for any declarations from weather agencies regarding the front's arrival, as this catalyst will determine whether the 81° to 82° range remains viable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.