Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is set to be measured by the day’s maximum at Le Bourget airport, so the market is really about whether the afternoon heat can push into the mid-30s Celsius rather than simply how warm it feels at midday. The crowd is currently leaning heavily towards **35°C or 36°C**, with 35°C the leading outcome on 38% and 36°C on 29%, while **39°C or higher** remains a tail risk at around 4% combined[1].

That pricing sits in the context of a Paris summer that can produce sharp spikes but usually does not sustain extreme values for long. Historical Paris climate data and August weather profiles point to frequent warm days, but the city’s highest August temperatures are typically well below the upper-30s, which makes a 39°C-plus print unusual rather than impossible[15][17]. Recent 2026 heatwave coverage also matters: France has already been dealing with exceptional early-summer heat, including widely reported record-breaking temperatures in June, which leaves traders focused on whether late-season warmth can reassert itself or whether the atmosphere has already cooled enough for a more ordinary peak[9][20].

The main catalyst is the short-range forecast update cycle from **Météo-France and ECMWF ensembles**, since the market on Polymarket explicitly cites recent guidance pointing to a 34–36°C range and the probabilities have been clustering around that band[1]. Traders will be watching for any overnight or morning revisions in forecast highs, cloud cover, and wind direction, because the last 1–2°C shift determines whether the settlement lands in 34°C, 35°C, 36°C, or the more speculative 37°C-plus brackets[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Paris on August 3? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.