Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s July climate is defined by cool maritime influence, with daily highs typically hovering around 70°F and rarely exceeding 79°F[1]. Historical data for 12 July shows extreme variability: in 2021, the airport recorded a record-low maximum of just 57°F, while a 2013 heatwave pushed temperatures to 87°F[2][9]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any temperature above the lowest range aligns with the city’s statistical tendency to avoid extreme heat, though the record-breaking 81.8°F average July last year suggests climate volatility remains a factor[3].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service Bay Area forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time KSFO station data as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 12 July 2026[2][8]. Unlike political markets driven by debates or disclosures, this event depends entirely on atmospheric conditions, with no scheduled catalysts beyond standard weather modelling updates. The market leans on the absence of a confirmed heatwave advisory; without one, the probability of temperatures breaching 75°F remains negligible given the prevailing marine layer[1]. Recent historical trends show June 2026’s peak was 72.6°F, reinforcing the baseline expectation of mild conditions[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.