Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco is expected to face typical July warmth tomorrow, with the market pricing a 7% chance that the peak temperature at the San Francisco International Airport Station exceeds 79°F. Historical data shows daily highs in July usually hover around 70°F, rarely climbing above 79°F, which aligns with the low probability assigned to extreme heat outcomes[2]. The all-time record for San Francisco stands at 103°F, recorded on 13 June 2000, while July 13 specifically saw 103°F in 2000 and 113°F in nearby Santa Rosa on 11 July 1913, though such extremes are exceptional and not indicative of normal conditions[3].

Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history for KSFO, the official resolution source, as it will confirm the highest temperature recorded at any time on 13 July 2026[9]. While no political debates or campaign disclosures directly influence weather, recent heat patterns in the Bay Area, including San Francisco’s third-hottest week in over 150 years, suggest underlying climate volatility that could shift expectations if forecasts change overnight[7]. The market currently leans on the 78–79°F range as the frontrunner at 50%, with 76–77°F at 24%, indicating traders expect temperatures near the upper end of the typical range but not record-breaking heat[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.