Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the recorded peak temperature at San Francisco International Airport on 30 June 2026, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above the lowest range. Historically, late June in San Francisco is mild, with the highest daily average high reaching 70°F on 29 June, while recent data from mid-to-late June 2026 shows a peak of only 72.6°F[1][2]. All-time records for the city are extreme, hitting 103°F on 14 June 2000, yet such anomalies are rare and typically linked to specific heat domes rather than seasonal norms[5][8]. The current 0% probability suggests traders view a significant heat spike as implausible given the typical marine layer that stabilises coastal temperatures.

Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts for the Bay Area, as any breakdown in the marine layer could trigger rapid temperature increases, though no major heat advisories are currently scheduled. There are no political debates, campaign-finance disclosures, or conventions directly influencing local weather patterns, meaning the market leans entirely on meteorological catalysts rather than socio-political events. Recent news from the National Weather Service indicates stable conditions for the region, with no immediate threats of extreme heat waves expected through the settlement window[3]. The primary catalyst remains the daily weather model updates from Wunderground, which will determine the final resolution temperature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.