Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s highest temperature for 22 July will be set by the day’s peak reading at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, with Wunderground as the settlement source. The crowd is pricing a broad heat outcome rather than an extreme spike: Polymarket currently has 92–93°F as the leading band at 45%, with 90–91°F next at 24%, which leaves the market leaning on a warm but not exceptional afternoon.[1]

Historically, Seattle’s midsummer highs can cluster in the upper 80s and low 90s when a blocking ridge settles over the Pacific Northwest, but the airport station’s actual peak matters more than citywide impressions. On a day like this, the difference between a settled marine layer and a late-day inland push can move the result by a full bracket, so the current 0% implied YES on any single narrower range reflects how tightly the market is focused on exact-hour temperature placement rather than a simple hot-or-cool call.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalyst is the short-term weather setup: model runs, any fresh National Weather Service guidance, and whether cloud cover or onshore flow arrives earlier than expected. The market is currently leaning on the same kind of late-day warmth seen in recent Seattle readings, with current conditions already in the 70s, but the decisive move will come from whether the afternoon top end extends long enough to lock in the highest bracket before temperatures ease after sunset.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.