Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer temperatures in August regularly exceed 30°C, with daily highs frequently reaching the mid-30s Celsius range. The city experiences its hottest period during August, driven by the East Asian summer monsoon and urban heat island effects from the metropolitan area's density. Historical August records at Incheon International Airport, the designated measurement station, show that extreme heat days—those reaching 35°C or above—occur in roughly one-third of years, whilst temperatures in the 32–34°C band are considerably more common.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either a technical market issue or traders' assessment that the specific temperature threshold being tested falls outside Seoul's typical August range. August 11 itself carries no particular meteorological significance; resolution hinges entirely on actual conditions recorded at Incheon station on that date. The Weather Underground Daily Observations table, rather than summary figures, will determine the outcome, introducing a minor data-source dependency that traders should verify before settlement.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in late July 2026, which will provide the first reliable 10–14 day outlook for Seoul's conditions. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes monthly climate summaries and extended forecasts that typically become available mid-month. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early autumn cooling or sustained high-pressure systems—would shift probabilities materially. Current crowd sentiment suggests either misplaced confidence in cooler conditions or a mismatch between the market's temperature ranges and historical norms.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.