Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 18 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about temperature thresholds or awaiting clarity on which specific range brackets the expected high.

Seoul's August temperatures have historically clustered between 28–32°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 34–35°C during heat waves. The city experienced a peak of 39.6°C in August 2018, though such outliers remain rare. Incheon, situated on the coast, typically records slightly cooler maxima than central Seoul due to maritime influence, generally ranging 1–2°C lower. Traders should reference the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and historical August patterns at Incheon to calibrate expectations against available temperature bands.

The critical catalyst remains the summer weather pattern forecast for East Asia in mid-August 2026. High-pressure systems and Tibetan anticyclone positioning will determine whether typical summer heat or cooler maritime air dominates the region. Traders should monitor the KMA's extended forecasts from July onwards, as these typically become more reliable within two weeks of the target date. El Niño or La Niña conditions could shift baseline temperatures; current oceanic indices should inform positioning ahead of the settlement window.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 18? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.