Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

South Korea’s heatwave is the real-world driver here, and the market is effectively asking how hot Incheon International Airport gets at its daily peak, not whether the country stays hot in a general sense. Current crowd pricing is concentrated in the low-30s Celsius, with 32°C leading at 42% and 33°C next at 30%, which fits a forecast profile of persistent summer heat rather than an extreme outlier reading.[1]

The probability picture is best read against Korea’s usual August climate and the current official forecast. Incheon’s long-run August averages are much milder than this week’s conditions, but that is exactly why the present setup matters: the Korea Meteorological Administration has been warning of daytime highs around 33–39°C nationally, while local reporting has put Incheon around 33°C and Seoul around 35°C, with humidity making the heat feel worse.[2][3][5] That makes a 31–33°C outcome look consistent with the base case, while 34°C or above requires the strongest afternoon surge at the airport station.[1][2]

For traders, the key catalyst is the day’s evolving forecast and how quickly the sea-breeze and cloud cover affect the airport reading before the market window closes at midday UTC. The market description also matters: settlement is tied to the highest temperature recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 2 August, using Wunderground’s daily history feed, and revisions can still matter until the first datapoint for the following day is published.[1] That leaves the main watchpoints as any KMA forecast updates, breaking heatwave coverage, and whether local conditions support a clean afternoon spike rather than an early peak.[2][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.