Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the **highest temperature** recorded at Incheon International Airport Station on 3 August 2026, which will settle into the market’s temperature band rather than a simple yes/no outcome. Early pricing at 0% YES therefore reflects a market that has not yet started to assign meaningful weight to any specific heat outcome, even though the official resolution source is a single daily maximum reading from Wunderground.

The broader weather backdrop points to **persistent heat across the capital area**, which is the main historical frame for reading this contract. SBS reported a heatwave warning across all of Seoul and forecast daytime highs of **37°C for Seoul** as easterly winds strengthen heating west of the ranges[1]. Other recent forecasts are somewhat cooler for Incheon specifically, with Asiae putting it at **34°C** and MK citing **32°C** for the day, both still well above seasonal norms[3][8]. For context, AccuWeather’s August outlook for Seoul shows highs clustered around **81–88°F** (about **27–31°C**), so a mid-30s reading would sit at the hot end of the local distribution rather than an extreme outlier[2].

The key catalyst traders are likely to watch is whether the **capital-area heatwave warning** translates into an actual spike in the airport station’s afternoon maximum, or whether local coastal effects keep Incheon below Seoul’s headline figure[1][3]. The immediate dependencies are the morning cloud cover, the strength and timing of easterly flow, and whether any showers or convection clip the airport vicinity later in the day; recent reporting suggests mostly clear skies with only limited shower risk in nearby regions[1][3][8]. In practice, the market is leaning on the official KMA-style short-range setup and the day’s evolving terminal conditions more than on any scheduled political-style catalyst, because the temperature outcome will be set by the day’s peak observation rather than by a later revision.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.