Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Incheon airport’s peak reading on 4 August will be driven by the same heatwave gripping the Seoul area, with forecasters pointing to a high of 37°C in Incheon and 38°C in Seoul, alongside a heat warning taking effect from 11:00 am. That leaves the market anchored to the day’s realised maximum rather than the midday forecast, but the current setup is clearly on the hot end of the August distribution.[1][3][5]

The 0% YES price sits far below the recent forecast cluster. August in Seoul is normally hot, but long-run reference pages put typical highs closer to the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, while comparable-date climate data show 4 August as one of the warmest points of the year. That means a summer heat spike is not unusual, yet a verified reading in the upper 30s would still be at the extreme end of the seasonal range.[14][16][19]

For traders, the main catalyst is whether the morning heat persists long enough for Incheon to print its daily maximum before any afternoon cloud, showers, or sea-breeze effects cap the rise. Reuters-style and local coverage have emphasised scattered showers later in the day that are not expected to break the heat, so the key watchpoints are the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range updates, the timing of the warning, and any surprise thunderstorm or coastal cooling near the airport corridor.[1][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.