Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market hinges on whether Seoul’s highest temperature on 10 July 2026 reaches exactly 28°C at Incheon International Airport, a threshold that current crowd-implied probability deems virtually impossible at 0% YES. This extreme scepticism reflects a backdrop of record-breaking heat where recent data shows Seoul hitting 37.7°C in early July, the highest in 117 years, while a streak of tropical nights above 25°C shattered century-old records for 22 consecutive days[1][5]. Historical averages for July in Seoul typically see daily highs between 81°F and 85°F (27.2°C–29.4°C), rarely exceeding 91°F (32.8°C), yet the current 0% probability suggests traders believe a specific 28°C peak is statistically negligible amidst such volatility[4].

Traders must monitor official meteorological announcements and scheduled climate declarations from the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly any updates on tropical night streaks or heatwave advisories that could shift temperature expectations. Recent news from Anadolu Ajansı confirms South Korea recorded its second-hottest July since 1973, with an average of 27.1°C, indicating a strong catalyst leaning on sustained high-pressure systems rather than isolated spikes[5][7]. The market is primarily leaning on the catalyst of persistent tropical nights, as evidenced by the 22-day streak breaking records, which suggests that while daytime highs may fluctuate, the baseline temperature remains elevated enough to make a precise 28°C reading unlikely without a specific forecasted anomaly[1]. No political debates or campaign-finance disclosures currently influence this weather-specific resolution, making meteorological data the sole dependency for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.