Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is entering its peak monsoon period, where July typically delivers humid afternoons with average highs near 27°C, though recent years have seen extremes breach 39°C. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific high-temperature range suggests traders believe conditions will remain within standard seasonal bounds rather than triggering record-breaking heat on 11 July 2026. Historical data confirms that while July is among the hottest months, it rarely surpasses August in intensity, with daily highs usually increasing from 81°F to 85°F and rarely exceeding 91°F [1][3].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave alerts and the strength of the Tibetan High, which has driven temperatures near 40°C in recent summers [5]. The market leans heavily on the absence of a declared “severe” heatwave alert for this specific date, as the last such alert was raised six days earlier than usual in late July 2025 [5]. Watch for any sudden shifts in the North Pacific High or unexpected rainfall forecasts from Wunderground, the official resolution source, which could suppress temperatures below the threshold implied by the zero probability [6].

Recent climate reports note South Korea endured its second-hottest July since 1973, with an average of 27.1°C, yet record peaks of 41.0°C occurred in Hongcheon, not Seoul [6][7]. This distinction is critical: while regional heat records are rising, Incheon International Airport Station (the market’s resolution point) has not consistently matched those extremes. The lack of a catalyst such as a government declaration or unprecedented forecast keeps the probability anchored at zero for this specific outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.